The highly anticipated and most expensive mid-term election in Ohio history has been settled. After $1B of spending and years of campaigning, the unofficial results show a Democratic wave, further solidifying the historical trend of the party in power suffering major losses at the ballot box.

The campaign messaging on affordability, data centers, energy costs, economic uncertainty, the war in Iran, inflation, and low approval ratings of the incumbent president had an impact on both the national and state election results.

There was much at stake in this election for independent agents and the insurance industry. Two seats on the Ohio Supreme Court, the Governor’s office and the other Executive offices, the State Legislature, US Senate representation, Ohio Congressional delegation, and how legislative districts are drawn were all in play in this election cycle.

OIAPAC, OIA’s non-partisan political action committee, tracks and engages in political races and issues on behalf of the Ohio independent agent community. In total, OIAPAC contributed over $60,000 in total to the Supreme Court candidates and various legislative candidates.

The results may shape the road ahead for independent agents in a number of ways, including preserving tort reform, nonrenewal time notification requirements, uninsured motorists, storm scammers, and premium tax rates.

Supreme Court

The Ohio Supreme Court elections are arguably the most important state elections to your policyholders, profession, and businesses.  After a string of defeats of Justices with a judicial restraint philosophy in 2018 and 2020, the legislature passed a law requiring party labels listed next to candidates’ names for the Supreme Court and Court of Appeals.

This change has allowed GOP-backed court candidates to run in nearly identical margins to the top of the ticket in 2022 and 2024. With Ohio trending deep red over the past 3 presidential elections, it may make these races increasingly more difficult for Democrats to win.

However, party label was not enough to overcome the blue wave. OIAPAC’s endorsed slate of candidates – Justice Dan Hawkins and Colleen O’Donnell – both lost their races by 2%-point margins. The Court went from a 6-1 margin to a 5-2 majority of Justices with a philosophy of judicial restraint, strict constructionism, and deference to the legislature on policy issues.

Every two years, OIAPAC vets candidates for the Ohio Supreme Court by studying their legal opinions, interviewing the candidates, and meeting with other insurance and business groups for insights on their views.

These losses will create a greater need to win the 2 open seats for the Court in 2028 to maintain a majority philosophy of judicial restraint for the next four years.

Why does the Supreme Court matter? Never forget the 1999 Scott-Pontzer ruling that extended coverage from an employer’s business auto and commercial umbrella policies to an employee who was killed while driving his wife’s private automobile outside the scope of his employment.

Fortunately, a lot has changed in the Ohio civil justice system over the past 20 years. The Scott-Pontzer decision was overturned in 2003 along with a plethora of other activist rulings that plagued our judicial system, state economy, and insurance marketplace. In addition to the Court rulings, the Legislature enacted tort reforms that included caps on non-economic damages, statutes of repose and limitations, and joint and several liability changes.

Outlook for Ohio Independent Agents: The 2 losses hurt, particularly the loss of incumbent Justice Dan Hawkins. However, Ohio will continue to have a predictable and stable legal environment with a 5-2 majority for strict constructionism. Tort reform laws on the books should be safe from being overturned by the Supreme Court. The Court will defer policy decisions to the legislature, thereby avoiding a replay of activist rulings like Scott Pontzer, but it will make the 2028 races all the more important because the outcome will decide the majority philosophical view of the Court.

The Democrats have now shown they are able to overcome party label to win these races. The Supreme Court races will always have to overcome being outspent by higher-ticket races, so grassroots campaigning will be ever more important in the future. OIA and other organizations with an interest in these races received a stark reminder of how fragile the balance of the Court majority can be.

Governor

Outlook for Ohio Independent Agents: Under Governor-elect Acton, we expect a strong approach to consumer protection, affordability, and a competitive marketplace. We do not anticipate any major changes to insurance regulation, the workers’ compensation program, or public safety.

We will keep a close eye on whether the Executive branch promotes a recession of the tort reform laws and considers changes to the premium tax or other revenue generators for the Department of Insurance. We fully expect there will be turnover in the director-level positions in all of the cabinet roles, specifically Insurance, BWC, and Public Safety.

State Legislature

Despite significant losses on election night, Republicans still maintain their legislative majorities in the House (55-44 – with some races still too close to call) and Senate (23-10).With the loss of the Republican supermajority in the House, Governor-elect Acton will have a stronger check in the balance of power with the legislature. This will likely lead to compromise and consensus when passing legislation and the budget bill next year.

There will be two independent agents and OIA members serving in the legislature for their final terms, with Rep. Jason Stephens and Rep. Brian Lampton. Both were successful in their re-election bids but with much tighter margins than in previous elections. Rep. Lampton is expected to return as Chair of the House Insurance Committee.

Outlook for Ohio Independent Agents: With Republican majorities in the Legislature, IAs will continue to have a favorable business environment in the legislative arena. We anticipate a continued push towards lower state taxes for individuals and small businesses, preservation of tort reforms, elimination of the CAT tax, no new taxes on insurance premiums or commissions, and a reduction in regulations.

This GOP makeup will make passing laws regulating storm scammers, online insurance verification, and extending the nonrenewal notification period to 60 days more challenging. Further complicating the non-renewal notification legislation is the fact that the bill sponsor, Rep. Brian Lorenz, lost his re-election bid, so we will have to find a new sponsor for that bill.

State Issue 3 – Constitutional Amendment on Photo ID Requirement for Voting

Ohioans adopted an amendment to require voters to present photo identification in order to vote by a with a 65% – 35% margin.

Federal Races in Ohio – US Senate and House

Ohio’s Senate race was center stage for control of the US Senate. With $550M+ spent, Ohio voters experienced the full onslaught of spending, with non-stop Husted-Brown commercials on our TVs, radio, mailboxes, social media channels, and text messages. The race has set the bar for the most expensive Senate campaign ever, upping the record amount spent in Ohio 2 years prior when Sen. Bernie Moreno defeated the then-incumbent Senator Sherrod Brown.

This race featured appointed Senator Jon Husted running to complete the final 2 years of Vice President J.D. Vance’s term against former 3-term Senator Sherrod Brown. Brown was victorious by a 5% margin. This was a key race in determining majority control of the US Senate, which Democrats will now have with at least 54 seats while 2 results are still currently pending.

In addition to Senator Husted’s defeat, Ohio’s Congressional delegation experienced significant change for the next Congressional session, flipping from a 10-5 GOP majority to an 8-7 majority for Democrats.

GOP incumbents Rep. Mike Turner (R-Dayton – 24-year member), Rep. Max Miller (R-Rocky River) and Rep. Mike Carey (R-Columbus) were all defeated by relatively unknown and heavily underfunded candidates. This contributed to a gain of 29 Democratic seats across the country.

Outlook for Independent Agents: The 20% tax cuts permanently adopted in 2025 were a key issue to get resolved while Republicans held majorities in both chambers of Congress and the White House because it is unlikely this could have gotten done under new majorities.

The future funding of the flood and crop insurance programs will continue to be a political debate, but it is possible new leadership will give these issues greater consideration for long-term solutions. With divided government between the Executive and Legislative branches, we expect a lot of gridlock and very few issues getting across the finish line.

Conclusion

I think we can all agree that it will feel good to put this election and the nonstop commercials and text messages behind us and get back to our daily lives. As it relates to our business, independent agents fared okay in the election. As is typically the case, our business will not likely change much as a result of the election because we have divided power in both the federal and state government, meaning progress will be slow and hard to come by.

Summary

About the Author:

Jeffrey S. Smith, JD, CIC, CAE serves as Chief Executive Officer for Ohio Insurance Agents Association (OIA) and IA Valuations. He is responsible for leading the organization’s strategic initiatives and day-to-day operations.

As CEO of IA Valuations, Smith has consulted and reviewed over 200 agency valuations for independent agents across the US. IA Valuations serves independent agencies as a trusted advisor and strategic business partners as they implement strategies to increase their agency value, grow their businesses, and transition their agencies. Smith provides insights into the agency’s operations, risk factors, and legal guidance on how to perpetuate and maximize value in a sale.